On September 7, a seemingly casual Weibo post caught the attention of the tech community.
“I’ve been working hard to improve my figure,” the post was accompanied by two recent photos of the humanoid robot Optimus. The poster, named TeslaAI, had recently completed Blue V certification, and its profile indicated that it was Tesla’s official account focusing on artificial intelligence and robotics.
CMRA discovered that in addition to Weibo, TeslaAI had also quietly logged onto several major Chinese social media platforms, including WeChat Official Account and Video Channel, Douyin, and Little Red Book, all of which had completed official certification.
Although these accounts currently have limited follower counts and operate in a relatively low-key manner, their simultaneous presence on multiple platforms signals that Tesla is building a new communication matrix for its “AI and Robotics” strategy in the Chinese market.
If viewed solely on their own, these accounts might simply appear to be a routine brand communication exercise. But placed in the current context, this becomes profoundly significant: that same week, Tesla’s board of directors announced a trillion-dollar bet with Musk, one of the core objectives of which was to deliver one million Optimus units.
Combined with Musk’s previous high-profile statement that “80% of Tesla’s future market capitalization will come from humanoid robots” and the overall strategy of “Master Plan Part 4,” the emergence of Tesla AI is more than just a simple social media campaign, but rather a proactive communication initiative.
After all, robots are becoming the protagonists of Tesla’s second growth curve, and China is one of the hottest testing grounds for this new story.
All in AI, Musk Bet Everything on Robotics
While many still believed Optimus was just a side project Musk was “playing around with” in his spare time, Tesla had quietly completed a strategic refocus.
In recent weeks, Tesla has been making numerous moves in the robotics field.
First, there was a technological upgrade for the humanoid robot Optimus. Photos and videos circulating online show the new Optimus sporting new gold or black exteriors and demonstrating actions like catching popcorn.
Musk responded on social media that this was not the long-awaited Optimus V3, but rather V2.5. He emphasized that the development path was “gradual iteration,” not a one-shot success. Compared to the original prototype, V2.5 already demonstrates more natural motion control, more dexterous hand grasping capabilities, and improved energy efficiency and stability.
Furthermore, according to insiders, Optimus’s training methods have undergone significant changes. Tesla has abandoned its previous training methods, which relied on motion capture devices and VR remote control, and has instead adopted a “pure vision” training approach. Employees wearing helmets and backpack-mounted multi-camera systems record their daily movements, using this video data to train Optimus in skills like folding clothes and grasping objects.
This approach aligns with Tesla’s experience in autonomous driving, using large-scale visual data to drive robot self-learning and demonstrates the company’s commitment to fully integrating AI capabilities into its new products.
On the other hand, a more exciting story is unfolding at the capital level. Tesla’s board of directors has proposed an unprecedented compensation plan, deeply tying Musk’s compensation over the next 10 years to 12 “surreal” goals.
The most eye-catching parts include: delivering one million robots, deploying one million Robotaxi vehicles, growing annual revenue to USD 400 billion, and increasing its market capitalization to 8.5 times its current value. If all these goals are achieved, Musk will receive a total bonus of up to USD 1 trillion.
This is an all-in approach at the capital level: the plan directly ties robot delivery to the company’s market capitalization. Over the next decade, Tesla’s valuation model will increasingly rely on the implementation of its robotics business. In other words, if robots fail, the system supporting Tesla’s market capitalization over the next decade may collapse.
This valuation adjustment mechanism (VAM) agreement is highly consistent with Musk’s frequent statements over the past two years. Whether at shareholder meetings or in public interviews, he has repeatedly emphasized that Tesla’s future market value will primarily come from robotics, not the automotive business.
In Master Plan Part 4, Tesla’s three core pillars are further clarified: energy, autonomous driving, and robotics. Optimus is included as a core clause in the plan, becoming the company’s strategic focus for the next phase.
From technological iteration to capital incentives to the strategic blueprint, these signals all point to the same conclusion: Tesla is devoting increasing resources and future vision to robotics.
Is the realization of the bet inseparable from China?
To understand the significance of the “TeslaAI” account, we must look beyond Tesla’s own actions and consider it within the broader context of the current humanoid robotics industry in China.
2025 is widely regarded within the industry as the “first year of commercialization” for humanoid robots. According to estimates by CMRA and several research institutions, shipments in the Chinese market will exceed 10,000 units this year.
The total number of orders disclosed by major companies has already exceeded 30,000 units. While this figure may be inflated, from pilot purchases by research institutes and universities to the gradual implementation of application scenarios in industrial manufacturing, warehousing and logistics, commercial operations, and government and enterprise services, the accelerated demand side is rapidly heating up the industry chain.
Capital and policy are also contributing to this push. The national level has clearly stated that humanoid robots should be included in key areas of new-quality productivity, and many local governments have introduced subsidies, demonstration projects, and special funds. This means that China may be the fastest market globally to successfully navigate the path to industrialization, from prototype testing to large-scale delivery.
Compared to European and American companies, China’s supply chain advantages are particularly prominent. Only a handful of countries globally possess the capabilities of a complete robotics supply chain, and China undoubtedly boasts one of the most comprehensive and responsive markets. From servo motors, reducers, sensors, and controllers to complete machine manufacturing and system integration, Chinese manufacturers can achieve a complete, closed-loop supply chain within a single provincial region.
Cost control capabilities are also widening the gap. The material cost of a humanoid robot in China has been reduced to approximately USD 10,000 to USD 30,000, far lower than that of its American counterparts. At the same time, the capabilities of local companies in capacity expansion and flexible manufacturing have also become accelerators of scale.
A typical example is Unitree, which launched the R1, priced under RMB 40,000, capable of performing highly complex maneuvers such as tumbling, running, and fighting. Other emerging companies, such as AGIBOT and Engine AI, have also rapidly entered the market by leveraging low-cost mass production and technological iteration. Overall, China has established a complete ecosystem, from core components to complete machine mass production.
From the external environment to the internal logic, Tesla finds little reason to avoid the Chinese market. Whether it’s the application scenarios driven by government procurement or the industrial chain collaboration enabled by the rapid verification of local companies, this makes China the market closest to large-scale application in the world.
It can be said that the most realistic soil for achieving Musk’s “one million units goal” is in China.
Whether this logic works depends largely on whether Tesla can find real application scenarios in China. If Optimus is first implemented in factories, logistics, and service industries, the one million units goal will move from a theoretical figure to a reality; otherwise, it may become just another overly optimistic promise.
Amid the hype, Optimus faces four hurdles
Driven by the dual forces of the capital market and public opinion, Tesla’s humanoid robot narrative has taken shape. However, several uncertainties remain for its continued development.
The first one is the pace of implementation. Musk’s goals have always been ambitious. While the goal of producing one million Optimus vehicles has captured imagination, it remains constrained in the short term by cost, supply chain, and safety standards. Compared to Chinese manufacturers, which have already managed to lower prices to RMB tens of thousands, Tesla’s cost-control advantage has yet to materialize.
The second one is regulation and social acceptance. Before humanoid robots can enter factories, shopping malls, and homes, safety and compliance are essential hurdles. Experience with autonomous driving has demonstrated a time lag between technological maturity and widespread adoption, and Optimus is no exception.
The third one is competitive landscape. The Chinese market is not short of players, with companies like Unitree, UBTECH, and AGIBOT rapidly ramping up mass production. For these companies, Tesla is both a potential benchmark and a direct competitor. Differentiating itself in technology, price, and market applications will determine Optimus’s true positioning.
The last one is the gap between narrative and reality. Posts like “I’ve been working hard to improve my figure” on Weibo can spark discussion, and the “one million units” goal outlined in a VAM agreement can win the applause of investors. However, without sustained, tangible results, these narratives could ultimately undermine Tesla’s credibility.
Back to the starting point, whether it is TeslaAI operating simultaneously on multiple platforms or the hard indicators written into the contract by the board of directors, they essentially point to the same question: Can Tesla prove itself not as a storyteller but as a true executor through actual implementation amid the global craze for humanoid robots?
Note:
The 2024-2025 Global Mobile Robot Industry Development Report has been released. If you need it, please feel free to contact us.
For details of the report, please click https://cnmra.com/release-of-the-2024-2025-global-mobile-robot-industry-development-report/.
