According to data from China Low Speed Automated Driving Industry Alliance (LSAD) and statistics from New Strategy Low Speed Automated Driving Industry Research Institute, China’s cumulative shipments of unmanned delivery vehicles for outdoor scenarios had exceeded 39,000 units by the end of November 2025, with approximately 27,000 units delivered between January and November 2025.
The New Strategy Low Speed Automated Driving Industry Research Institute forecasts that annual shipments in 2025 are expected to approach 40,000 units, with sales exceeding 4.5 billion yuan. By 2026, the cumulative historical shipments are projected to reach 150,000 units, and are expected to hit 750,000 to 1.05 million units by 2030, forming a market space of hundreds of billions of yuan.
Meanwhile, China now boasts over 90 leading enterprises specializing in unmanned delivery vehicle manufacturing and integrated solutions. In addition to mainstream autonomous driving tech firms, traditional OEMs and Tier 1 intelligent driving suppliers have entered the market in recent years, injecting fresh variables and momentum into the industry.
Nearly 15 OEMs compete for new track
The proactive strategic moves of nearly 15 major OEMs have recently drawn significant attention. Xiamen King Long, a pioneer in autonomous driving transformation, established a strategic partnership with Baidu in 2017 and launched Apolong—the world’s first mass-produced L4 autonomous bus—the following year. By 2020, its DIDO autonomous logistics vehicles, co-developed with JD Logistics, had achieved routine operations in nearly 20 Chinese cities.
As unmanned delivery emerges as the first low speed autonomous driving sector to reach 10,000-unit deployment scale, OEMs including Chery, Geely, and JAC have introduced their own or partnered unmanned delivery solutions.
Some Unmanned Logistics Delivery Vehicle products of OEMs
In addition to the above-mentioned OEMs, there are also professional manufacturers such as New Gonow Auto and DFI, which provide complete vehicle manufacturing and customized chassis support for unmanned delivery enterprises.
Behind the Frenzy: Unmanned Delivery Enters the Midfield Battle
The collective entry of OEMs has brought multiple benefits to the development of the unmanned delivery industry.
First, there is the fundamental reinforcement of product foundations. By integrating century-old automotive industry expertise in rigorous quality control, supply chain management, mass production, and after-sales systems, OEMs can significantly enhance vehicle reliability, consistency, and safety, which is the prerequisites for large-scale commercial operations.
Second, cost reduction potential has been further unlocked, with the iterative scaling process expected to accelerate. Leveraging mature vehicle platforms and supply chains, OEMs can expedite the standardization of vehicle line-controlled chassis while substantially reducing hardware costs through bulk procurement and production, effectively addressing the long-standing “cost-effectiveness” challenge.
The influx of OEMs also signals mainstream capital and industry forces ‘broad optimism and substantial investment in the sector’s prospects, which will undoubtedly attract more resources and accelerate ecosystem maturation and integration.
However, beneath the prosperity lies “concern”. In the short term, the influx of numerous players may lead to product homogenization and price wars. If manufacturers merely integrate similar autonomous driving solutions on comparable chassis, competition will rapidly become a cost battle, squeezing innovation and profit margins.
Meanwhile, industry roles may face restructuring. OEMs with strong manufacturing and cost advantages are gaining increasing influence in collaborations, particularly those establishing independent brands and transitioning into “whole vehicle solution providers”. This will create more direct competition with native autonomous delivery companies. This trend will drive the entire industry to shift from “technical cooperation” to “niche competition”, compelling all participants to build stronger differentiation barriers in technological depth, scenario understanding, and operational efficiency.
Moreover, the risks of overcapacity and market bubbles cannot be overlooked. If policy impacts cause market demand growth to lag behind production capacity expansion, the industry may undergo a shakeout.
New Strategy Comment:
The current wave of OEMs entering the market is an inevitable phase toward industry maturity. However, the future of the sector lies not in simplistic “more is better,” but in pursuing “differentiated symbiosis.”
Over the next five years, we may witness profound ecological convergence and role reshaping under the shared goal of “large-scale commercialization.” OEMs with full-stack capabilities and technology companies specializing in scenarios are not mutually exclusive options. Instead, they will form a more complex and stable symbiotic network under the dual logic of “manufacturing as a service” and “scenarios as products.” The core of competition will shift from “who can deliver vehicles” to “who can consistently provide optimal operational costs and service experiences for specific scenarios.”
